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October 24, 2006
You're cut, pint-sized
An interesting finding: “More than 75 per cent of [hockey] players who made the Canadian national under-18 teams in the last five years had birthdays before July.” The implication is that coaches of age-based teams are weeding out late birthdays because of a bias towards bigger, stronger players. Off the top of my head, I can't see a solution to this disparity: older players aren't just bigger and stronger than younger ones — they're better, too. That said, 75 percent seems remarkably high even for such a limited sample, and if the disparity filters up to pro hockey then it stands to reason that somewhere along the line at least a few talented players have been unfairly left behind.
It does seem to filter up to the NHL, as it turns out. Based on a less-than-exhaustive analysis of the forwards and defensemen listed on nhl.com (which include some retired players and don't account for a few foreign-born players who are really Canadian), I can report that the bias towards pre-July 1 birthdays is in the mid-50s and pretty constant across players of different nationalities: overall (921 players) 57.8%; Canadians (488 players) 59.2%; Americans (167 players) 56.9%; and those (mostly European) who are neither (266 players) 56.4%.
It strikes me that this is something that's probably been studied before, and that might logically extend to other sports and even non-athletic endeavours as well. Still, there's no logical reason to be happy with this phenomenon.
Posted by Chris Selley at October 24, 2006 10:30 PM
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Comments
I think it makes sense that an early month birthday skews the results. From the first time kids play in age brackets, the kids with early birthdays have an extra half year of development on the late birthday kids. When you look at the difference a full year makes, ie comparing 15 yr olds to 14 yr olds, you can see which age group is going ot get more focussed coaching, more ice time, and more encouragement to continue at a high level.
A more interesting (and involved study) would look at whether the so-called late-bloomer players tended to be late birthday kids - underdeveloped at younger ages.
Posted by: Firehead at October 24, 2006 10:53 PM
So, the fact that I'm born in December provides a sufficient excuse as to why I suck at hockey? Cause I could really use an excuse.
Posted by: Olaf at October 24, 2006 10:55 PM
Yeah, I misspoke. There's a very logical reason for the phenomenon to exist, but no reason to be content with it.
Posted by: Chris Selley at October 24, 2006 11:10 PM
I can't find the stats I'm looking for to prove this, but aren't more babies born in the first six months of the year than the last six? There was always a torrent of birthdays in the spring, when I was in elementary school.
75% seems high, but I'd be willing to believe 60% of Canadian kids are born January to June -- something that would negate the "bias" you've found in the NHL, anyway, and weaken the Toronto Star findings a bit.
This crazy study I stumbled across shows a pre-July bias for NHL players, but the author believes it has something to do with astrology...
Posted by: JKelly at October 25, 2006 05:22 AM
I'm full of shit. In 1995, 50.7% of all newborn Canadian babies born were born Jan-June. Nowhere near 60%...
Posted by: JKelly at October 25, 2006 05:59 AM
check out Levitt and Dubner (Freakonomics) for some research on birth date and sports success as well as Steve Sailer on his blog for some rational explanations
Pedro
Posted by: pedro at October 25, 2006 09:17 AM
There is a bias towards "bigger, stronger players", what is wrong with that? If bigger and stronger makes the player seem better to the coach of the team, is it not in our best interest to have the best players on the ice?
Or am I misunderstanding the point of this post?
Posted by: lk at October 25, 2006 01:23 PM
I think the point is that early birthday kids have an inherent advantage in that they are "bigger and stronger" within their peer group because of the way the peer group is generally defined - by calendar year. Unless you think that early birthdays lead to bigger and stronger full-grown adults.
It would be interesting to see not just early vs late birthdays, but also by month. For most high school students, birthdays after Sept 1st are eligible to play at the next lower level, making them the oldest. I always found this as odd, as it is another arbitrary date that they for some reason was thought to be more fair. I wonder if this has had an affect on those hockey players...
Posted by: Firehead at October 25, 2006 04:00 PM
I can't find the stats I'm looking for to prove this, but aren't more babies born in the first six months of the year than the last six?
I just looked at BC (any Ontarians are welcome to report back from the Ontario Department of Vital Statistics...) and the only years where births by month were available were 2004 and 2003. Of roughly 40,000 live births in each year, 50.2% were in the first six months of 2003, and 49.6% in the first six months of 2004. If the Null Hypothesis is that birth rate is constant over the year, I think we need some other data points to falsify it, certainly to the extent of explaining a roughly 60/40 advantage in professional hockey...
Posted by: DCardno at October 25, 2006 04:23 PM
A lot of work has been done on how age impacts kids in school. The work of Jean Piaget in cognitive development suggests that the development of the brain has a profound impact on children’s ability to learn. A child might be having difficulty because they may not be developmentally ready to learn a particular concept. They will learn the concept, but only when their brain has developed enough to do so.
This has serious implications in school since an elementary student might be achieving poor results not because he/she won't learn, but simply because she/he can't learn at that particular moment because his/her brain isn't developed to learn the concept. There is much more to brain development than age (i.e. environment, nutrition, sleep, activity, exploration, and exposure to new ideas), but cognitive development is a vital part of learning.
Imagine the youngest student in the class being, physically, the smallest in size, but also the one whose brain is the youngest and perhaps the least able, developmentally, to grasp new concepts. What is the emotional impact of being physically behind everyone else in the class?
Think back to when you were in elementary school. The strongest students and the biggest kids in the class were, more likely than not, the oldest. While this will even out in the long run, the psychological and emotional impact that this has upon kids can impact them for life. Studies have been done about the impact that the Relative Age Effect has upon children's self-esteem, overall success in school, and even likelihood for suicide.
We should not be content with the effect that month of birth—or, I think more precisely, brain and physical development – has upon children. Its impact is receiving a great deal of research, and, if it's any consolation, teacher's colleges are rife with discussion about cognitive development and the work of Piaget. A part of me, however, wonders if this is the kind of information that people cram, regurgitate on test day, and then forget. Certainly, parents and coaches should be aware of cognitive development and the way that it impacts children’s lives.
Posted by: MD at October 26, 2006 12:54 PM
A few years basck I read a study that dealt with this issue in detail and the results show a series of advantages that add up to aid early in the year kids. Firehead pretty much hit the study's results on the head: the kids with the earlier birthdays typically have a commensurate increase in size and coordination. This gets them on the higher calibre leagues where they receive better coaching and better facilities. The smaller kids on the other hand end up in the lower levels with less experienced coaches (i.e the rich get richer, the poor get poorer). Sure there will always be exceptions, but children's growth curves are pretty predictable and older pretty much always means bigger and more coordinated.
Posted by: Blair at October 26, 2006 05:22 PM


